Kyler Murray
Quarterback
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray suffered a torn ACL during the 2022 season which will likely limit his 2023 play but be back in his full form for the 2024 season. Murray is looking at an average of 10 months of recovery time for his knee injury which puts his availability to start the 2023 season in doubt. His timeline is a highly variable one as it is an estimated return of around Week 8-12 of the 2023 NFL season. Him being a young player with the combination of a large contract could mean that Murray takes his recovery slower than expected. The Cardinals also may not want to rush Murray back due to his age as he is a young player and how much money they have invested into Murray. Murrays’ passing production should be unaffected this season but his rushing attempts will most likely dip for at less 15 months after his ACL injury.
Javonte Williams
Running Back
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams suffered a torn ACL, torn LCL and damage to his posterior lateral corner ligament in Week 4 versus the Las Vegas Raiders during the 2022 NFL season. There are differing opinions on Williams recovery timeline as he could be ready for the season, could miss some games, or even miss the entire season. Javonte Williams is looking at a recovery timeline of an average of 15 months. Week 1 of the NFL season is 11 months from when Williams injured his knee. Even once Williams returns it takes an average of 3-4 games for young backs like Williams to return to pre injury form. In the first year after a back returns from injury their production usually takes a 20-30% dip in production but returns to pre injury form in year 2 post injury. The Broncos may take it slow with Williams’ recovery as they signed RB Samaje Perine in the offseason in the event that Williams is not ready to go Week 1. Perine showed last season as a member of the Cincinnati Bengals ,when he filled in for RB Joe Mixon, that he is more than capable of carrying the load out of the backfield. In 3 games as a starter in 2022 he averaged: 110 yards on 21 touches. Over the entire season Perine averaged 4.15 yards per carry (YPC) and caught 38 of 51 targets for 287 yards and four touchdowns. He finished the season as the overall Point Per Reception (PPR) RB34, which is impressive for someone behind a star back like Mixon. The 1st year after ACL reconstruction in RB is rough and last RB to return from ACL and the only RB to be top 20 in 1st year back was Chiefs RB Jammal Charles back in 2012.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Wide Receiver
New England Patriots
JuJu Smith-Schuster is going from Patrick Mahomes to Mac Jones with his move to the New England Patriots this past offseason. This move may not be a good going from the Chiefs who threw the ball a lot to the Patriots who do not throw the ball much. JuJu ranked 49th in WR efficiency last year. Smith-Schuster had the 3rd most accurate targets from QB Patrick Mahomes. Smith-Schusters’ QB Mac Jones was 23rd in accuracy rating last year.
Jakobi Meyers
Wide Receiver
Las Vegas Raiders
Jakobi Meyers signed with the Raiders where he will not be the top target. Meyers earned a 26% target share in 2022 as a member of the New England Patriots. This will not repeat as Davante Adams is the top receiver for the Raiders. Meyers may actually be the third or fourth option in the Raiders passing game.
Allen Lazard
Wide Receiver
New York Jets
Allen Lazard was one of the Packers top receiving options in 2022. Lazard earned a 23% target share in 2022 in Green Bay. Lazard will not see this percentage of target share as receiver Garrett Wilson is in New York to compete for targets. Even if Aaron Rodgers joins the Jets via trade it will be difficult for Lazard to get consistent targets in a crowded receivers room.
Brandin Cooks
Wide Receiver
Dallas Cowboys
Brandin Cooks was traded to the Cowboys by the Houston Texans for 2 late round draft picks. This is a great real football move but bad one for Cooks in fantasy football. Cooks will be the WR2 in Dallas. A role that averaged 5.1 targets per game last year. That is 28% less than Cooks average in 2022. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is now calling plays which is bad as McCarthy has stated he wants to run more. This means less volume for Cooks in the passing game.
Mike Gesicki
Tight End
New England Patriots
Mike Gesicki signed with the New England Patriots this past offseason after beginning his career with the Dolphins. This move may not be a good going from the Dolphins who threw the ball a lot to the Patriots who do not throw the ball much. Last season Gesickis’ inability to block led to 26% less snaps. Gesickis’ struggles to block, could keep him behind TE Hunter Henry. The Patriots use their TEs often to block which is bad news for Gesicki.
Evan Engram
Tight End
Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram had a strong finish to the 2022 NFL season. He scored half of his fantasy points for the year over a four-week window. Engram averaged only 4.5 targets and only 5.4 fantasy points per game in the other 13 games of the year. Over a 17-game space, the veteran would have ended the year as the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average. Engram finished third on the team in targets (98) and receiving touchdowns (four). The Jaguars are adding receiver Calvin Ridley which means fewer opportunities to make plays in the passing game.
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